SEND Sufficiency Strategy 2024 to 2030

Forecasts are based on projecting forward previous year’s trends. Due to the small numbers of children in York with Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCP) and the year-on-year volatility in trends, the projections should be treated with caution. The forecasts will be kept under regular review.

The forecasts suggest that:

• the number of children with EHCP funded by City of York Council (CYC) will rise to almost 1,500 by January 2025 and 2,100 by January 2030
• mainstream schools will need to include over 100 additional pupils with EHCPs by January 2025, increasing by over 500 by 2030. These places will need to cater predominantly for children and young people with Autism, Speech Language and Communication Needs and Social, Emotional and Mental Health
• with the needs assessments identifying an increase in the number of primary school specialist placements, additional special school places are needed in primary in the short to mid-term. In total we forecast by 2030, CYC will need an additional 70 places across the primary specialist providers
• whilst the build of a new Enhanced Resource Provisions at secondary is reducing the increasing pressure on Applefields School for September 2024, the increased number of places in primary specialist will eventually feed through, leading to increased pressure for secondary in the longer term. In total we forecast by 2035, CYC will need an additional 80 places at secondary specialist providers
• the current ‘bulge’ in Key Stage 3 within the specialist providers will impact on post-16 placements by 2026. The change in the presentation of need of these young people will mean the post-16 offer will need to adapt to be able to provide a suitable curriculum to meet need
• the local ‘Staying Close’ and ‘Together We Can’ agendas impact on the small, but significant, number of young people whose recent educational experience has been part of a residential care package. To secure successful outcomes we will need to increase the number of bespoke, personalised, educational packages available
• the emerging small group of young people with the most complex needs will require a suitable education offer provided through a creative multi-disciplinary approach
• with a small number of children and young people for whom there is temporarily no suitable school available, CYC needs a robust and rigorous process and oversight to ensure every child and young person’s provision is quality assured and a secure, suitable education setting identified as soon as possible
• from April 2024, working parents of 2-year-olds will be able to access 15 hours of free childcare. From September 2024, the offer of 15 hours of free childcare will be extended to all children from the age of 9 months and from September 2025, working parents of children under the age of 5 will be entitled to 30 hours free childcare per week. The impact of these reforms, alongside the increased numbers of EHCPs, will impact on sufficiency in the Early Years